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發表於 2013-1-23 00:18 | ||||||||||||
Q: 請教一下ALLAN桑, 美國的歷史本益比在哪可查, 想算一下ACPE, 一直沒找到, 感謝! A: 一開始, 我用 ycharts.com s&p500 historical pe ratio. 後來, 發現根本不必算, 因 acpe 的原著作者 rober shiller (yale 大學教授) 自己有 website 且 他 fans 每天幫你計算 acpe(10y) for s&p500 目前 Current Shiller PE Ratio: 22.78 +0.03(0.13%) 10:45am EST, Tue Jan 22
strategy , 類似巴菲特大盤指標 ------------------------------------------------------ basedon the ratio of the current CAPE10 to the long term average CAPE10: § Significantly Overvalued (SO): such as if the ratio >=150% § Modestly Overvalued (MO): such as if 117%<= ratio < 150% § Fairly Valued (FV): such as if 83% <= ratio < 117% § Modestly Undervalued (MU): such as if 67% <= ratio< 83% § Significantly Undervalued (SU): such as if ratio < 67% Thesefive categories are determined by four valuation parameters (such as 150%,117%, 83% and 67% in the above). At each rebalancing (adjusting) period (suchas weekly or monthly), the strategy decides at what region the US stock marketvaluation is and then does the following rebalancing: § SO: 0% in stock, 100% in cash. § MO: 25% in stock, 75% in cash. § FV: 50% in stock, 50% in cash § MU: 75% in stock, 25% in cash § SU: 100% in stock, 0% in cash -------------------------------------------------------------------- 目前 s&P 500 ratio=138.39 屬 MO , 有一點貴了 (用dr wang acpe-3y , s&p500 也是 有一點貴) |
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